How this works.

The short version: betting markets are the most accurate public forecast of football matches that exists — decades of research says nobody reliably beats the closing line. So instead of pretending to out-predict the market, we translate it: we take prices from ~30 sportsbooks (including the sharpest ones), strip out each bookmaker's built-in profit margin, average what's left, and turn it into plain-language probabilities and score forecasts you can actually use.

Where the numbers come from

Win / draw / win: multi-book consensus odds, devigged with the power method (which removes more margin from longshots, matching how books actually price), averaged on the logit scale.

Score forecasts: three markets triangulated — the over/under sets total goals, the goal handicap sets the gap between the teams, and the draw price sets how often the teams trade punches versus cancel out (a Dixon-Coles correction). The histogram on every match shows the full spread; even the best pick lands only ~1 game in 6, and we say so.

Live, during games: the win-probability curves come from a model that re-prices the match every ~30 seconds from the current score, time remaining, and the run of play (shots, shots on target, possession, red cards). In testing it independently tracked live sportsbook prices within a point or two.

Group tables and bracket: actual points for played games + market-expected points for the rest; the knockout bracket uses the official FIFA R32 template with realistic extra-time and penalty handling (shootouts are nearly a coin flip — that's the published evidence).

The honesty ledger

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and scored after full time — winners and exact scorelines, hits and misses, on the front page. We don't quietly delete the bad calls. If the model has a bad tournament, you'll see it here first.

The fine print

This is not betting advice. Probabilities are estimates; markets move; variance is brutal. If you bet, bet legally where you live (21+ in most US states, 18+ elsewhere) and only what you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun: in the US call or text 1-800-GAMBLER; elsewhere see gamblingtherapy.org.

This is an independent fan project — not affiliated with FIFA or any team, sportsbook, or broadcaster. Scores, odds, and weather come from publicly available data feeds. Meme GIFs are fan content used in a non-commercial setting — rights holders can request removal any time. Built by futureplease.