Group stage · expected points · projected knockouts

Who's stressin'?

Groups — expected points

Group A odds history →

1	Mexico	😌	6.61
2	South Korea	😌	6.03
3	Czechia	🚨	2.79
4	South Africa	🚨	1.55

Group B odds history →

1	Switzerland	😌	6.27
2	Canada	😌	4.51
3	Bosnia-Herzegovina	😬	3.74
4	Qatar	🚨	1.42

Group C odds history →

1	Brazil	😌	7.08
2	Morocco	😌	4.86
3	Scotland	😬	3.64
4	Haiti	🚨	1.25

Group D odds history →

1	United States	😌	6.29
2	Türkiye	😌	4.91
3	Paraguay	🚨	2.73
4	Australia	🚨	2.72

Group E odds history →

1	Germany	😌	6.93
2	Ecuador	😌	4.96
3	Ivory Coast	😬	4.36
4	Curaçao	🚨	0.67

Group F odds history →

1	Netherlands	😌	5.91
2	Japan	😌	4.64
3	Sweden	😬	3.64
4	Tunisia	🚨	2.30

Group G odds history →

1	Belgium	😌	6.78
2	Egypt	😌	4.24
3	Iran	😬	3.49
4	New Zealand	🚨	2.08

Group H odds history →

1	Spain	😌	7.60
2	Uruguay	😌	5.24
3	Cape Verde	🚨	2.20
4	Saudi Arabia	🚨	1.92

Group I odds history →

1	France	😌	6.80
2	Norway	😌	5.10
3	Senegal	😬	3.97
4	Iraq	🚨	0.99

Group J odds history →

1	Argentina	😌	6.94
2	Austria	😌	4.75
3	Algeria	😬	3.72
4	Jordan	🚨	1.36

Group K odds history →

1	Portugal	😌	6.61
2	Colombia	😌	5.61
3	Congo DR	🚨	2.48
4	Uzbekistan	🚨	2.02

Group L odds history →

1	England	😌	6.79
2	Croatia	😌	4.95
3	Ghana	😬	2.80
4	Panama	🚨	2.14

😌 cruising · 😬 sweating · 🚨 full panic — stress tracks the live projections and updates as results come in. green top two · amber best-third qualifier · xPts = Σ 3·P(win) + P(draw) over the three group games — market odds where posted, FIFA-rank model otherwise.

Projected knockout bracket

Most-likely path: each tie advances the higher-probability side. 90-minute draws resolve realistically — half in extra time (favorite's edge compressed), half on penalties (a coin flip). Third-place slotting is one legal permutation of FIFA's allocation rules. Until knockout odds post, advancement leans on the rank model.

Round of 32

KOR😬54

CAN😬46

2026-06-28 · 15:00 ET
SoFi Stadium

GER😌81

BIH🚨19

2026-06-29 · 16:30 ET
Gillette Stadium

NED😬54

MAR😬46

2026-06-29 · 21:00 ET
Estadio BBVA

BRA😌57

JPN😬43

2026-06-29 · 13:00 ET
NRG Stadium

FRA😌73

SWE🚨27

2026-06-30 · 17:00 ET
MetLife Stadium

ECU😌56

NOR😬44

2026-06-30 · 13:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

MEX😌69

SCO🚨31

2026-06-30 · 21:00 ET
Estadio Banorte

ENG😌70

CIV🚨30

2026-07-01 · 12:00 ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

USA😬49

SEN😬51

2026-07-01 · 20:00 ET
Levi's Stadium

BEL😌63

ALG😬37

2026-07-01 · 16:00 ET
Lumen Field

COL😬49

CRO😬51

2026-07-02 · 19:00 ET
BMO Field

ESP😌65

AUT😬35

2026-07-02 · 15:00 ET
SoFi Stadium

SUI😬51

IRN😬49

2026-07-02 · 23:00 ET
BC Place

ARG😌58

URU😬42

2026-07-03 · 18:00 ET
Hard Rock Stadium

POR😌85

GHA🚨15

2026-07-03 · 21:30 ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

TUR😌55

EGY😬45

2026-07-03 · 14:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

Round of 16

GER😬46

FRA😬54

2026-07-04 · 17:00 ET
Lincoln Financial Field

KOR😬38

NED😌62

2026-07-04 · 13:00 ET
NRG Stadium

BRA😌62

ECU😬38

2026-07-05 · 16:00 ET
MetLife Stadium

MEX😬41

ENG😌59

2026-07-05 · 20:00 ET
Estadio Banorte

CRO😬43

ESP😌57

2026-07-06 · 15:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

SEN😬46

BEL😬54

2026-07-06 · 20:00 ET
Lumen Field

ARG😌65

TUR😬35

2026-07-07 · 12:00 ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

SUI😬40

POR😌60

2026-07-07 · 16:00 ET
BC Place

Quarterfinals

FRA😌55

NED😬45

2026-07-09 · 16:00 ET
Gillette Stadium

ESP😌57

BEL😬43

2026-07-10 · 15:00 ET
SoFi Stadium

BRA😬49

ENG😬51

2026-07-11 · 17:00 ET
Hard Rock Stadium

ARG😬50

POR😬50

2026-07-11 · 21:00 ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Semifinals

FRA😬50

ESP😬50

2026-07-14 · 15:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

ENG😬51

POR😬49

2026-07-15 · 15:00 ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Final

ESP😬51

ENG😬49

2026-07-19 · 15:00 ET
MetLife Stadium

Champion

★

Spain

Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-06-12T20:01:54+00:00