Group D · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood · 2026-06-12 · 🏟️ 21:00 – ~22:55 ET (end time is approximate — stoppage time can stretch it)
Pre-match: fair consensus of 31 sportsbooks (as of 2026-06-12 18:31Z)
Full-time recap
Australia
TürkiyeWin likelihood as the game unfolds
Each line is the chance of that result given the score and time left, updated every ~30 seconds. X-axis is the game minute.
Final-score race
Each line is one possible final score, labeled at the right edge — colored by who that score favors (USA blue, draws gray, PAR amber). Watch a line take off when a goal goes in.
Match timeline
USA events above the line, PAR below · ⚽ goal · ⚽P penalty · ❌ miss · yellow / red cards
Live match stats
When one side is creating more — more shots, shots on target and possession — we nudge their remaining scoring pace up and the other's down, so the charts react to how the game is actually being played, not just the scoreline.
Most likely final scores
How often each final score would happen if this game were played many times. Green is what Fufuball predicts — even the best pick only lands roughly 1 game in 6, so treat the spread as the real forecast.
Match facts
Why this prediction
The betting market (fair consensus of 31 sportsbooks (as of 2026-06-12 18:31Z)) makes United States the favorite: once the bookmaker's built-in profit margin is stripped out, the prices say United States 46%, draw 29%, Paraguay 24%. Markets like this are historically the most accurate public forecast there is.
We expect a scoring pace of roughly 1.3 goals for United States and 0.9 for Paraguay. That comes from two more markets: the over/under (how many total goals bettors expect) and the goal handicap of -0.5 (how big a head start the underdog would need to make the game a coin flip).
FIFA rankings: United States #17 vs Paraguay #41 — United States rate higher than Paraguay.
Pochettino's USMNT beat Senegal 3-2 then lost the final warm-up 2-1 to Germany; Pulisic and Balogun (19 goals for Monaco) lead the attack, Chris Richards (ankle) only just back. Paraguay under Alfaro are pragmatic and set-piece based, won 3 of last 4 and beat Argentina in qualifying. USA won the Nov 2025 friendly meeting 2-1.
Roofed/climate-controlled stadium — outside conditions (21°C) don't apply.
Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-06-12T18:31:48+00:00
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